abrdn: Commentary on UK GDP data
Luke Bartholomew, Deputy Chief Economist at abrdn, comments on the UK GDP data released today.
'While still very weak in absolute terms, today’s GDP numbers were much better than expected and may act as something of a narrative break. Certainly it is difficult to see the economy slipping into a technical recession in the near term now. Nonetheless, it is still very likely that the OBR will need to sharply downgrade its growth forecasts, putting more pressure on the Chancellor to meet her fiscal rules. And there are still material headwinds from the upcoming National Insurance increase, which is likely to weigh on employment and push up on inflation. So further gradual interest rate cuts are still likely.'