Outlook 2025: Maurice Geraets (Achmea Investment Management)
This text was originally written in Dutch
By Maurice Geraets, Senior Investment Strategist, Achmea Investment Management
Where are the biggest opportunities and threats for 2025?
'The US economy and part of the eurozone are currently in a sweet spot. There is moderate economic growth and inflation has fallen to acceptable levels for central banks. As a result, they started cutting policy rates in the second half of 2024.
The threats for 2025 lie on both the growth and inflation sides. The outlook for the US economy is subdued and any US recession will hit the entire global economy. If inflation does prove more persistent than currently expected, central banks will not ease monetary policy as much as currently priced in. Both scenarios, a recessionary or stagflationary environment, will be negative for most risky investments. Current high geopolitical tensions and looming trade conflicts could be catalysts for either scenario. In addition, high budget deficits and high debt levels of Western countries remain concerns.
The biggest opportunities can be found in the area of technological innovation. New breakthroughs in artificial intelligence and renewable energy can increase productivity and open up new markets. Economic growth will then get a positive boost, while keeping inflation under control. In addition, China could provide a positive surprise. The Chinese economy has been under pressure in recent years, but the Chinese authorities have announced a sizeable support package. Depending on its size and implementation, China could become a positive factor for the global economy by 2025.'
China could become a positive factor for the global economy in 2025.