Outlook 2025: Emile Cardon (PGGM)
This text was originally written in Dutch
By Emile Cardon, Senior Investment Strategist, PGGM
Where are the biggest opportunities and threats for 2025?
'Donald Trump's victory could lead to major changes. In the short term, the effects could be positive for the US economy by increasing the likelihood of fiscal stimulus, which could support (listed) companies and consumers. However, this also carries the risk that inflation will rise again, which may prevent the US central bank from cutting interest rates as much as previously thought.
We also see risks on the geopolitical front. Trump's intention to raise trade tariffs could hurt both the US itself and the rest of the global economy. Economies like Mexico, China and the eurozone could be affected. The situation in Germany worries us in this respect. Economic growth has been close to zero for some time, partly due to problems in the auto sector - one of the sectors potentially hit hard by trade tariffs. Finally, a strict migration policy could eventually lower US growth.'
Donald Trump's victory could lead to big changes.